讀書筆記 The Essays of Warren Buffet—III：Alternatives to Common Stock

* Notice: 這篇文章是我看書時針對內容不清楚的地方所作的筆記，如果有任何錯誤請不吝提出！

A. Junk Bonds

槓桿風險

“When assets are twenty times equity, mistakes that involve a small portion of assets can destroy a major portion of equity. “– p128.

根據 2022 年 Bank of America 2022 年度資產負債表（BAC 2022 Report,page 79)：

• Assets：3,051,375M
• Liabilities：2,778,178M

計算出 Equity / Asset：273,197/3,051,375 ~= 8.95%，大概是11倍。

再來分別看看蘋果（APPL）2022年財報 及 谷歌（GOOG）2022年財報：

• AAPL：Total Asset: 352,755M，Total liabilities: 302,083M，換算Equity / Asset = 50,672 / 352,755 ~= 14.4%，大概是7倍。
• GOOG：Total Assets: 365,264M，Total Liabilities: 109,120M，換算 Equity / Asset = 256,144/365,264 ~= 70%，只有約 1.4倍

當 Equity : Asset的倍數越大，代表有更多比例的資金是透過借債，由上面案例可以看到銀行業確實較科技業的更高。亦即槓桿 (leverage)。而高槓桿對企業的影響從巴菲特的話可以看出端倪：

Because leverage of 20:1 magnifies the effects of managerial strengths and weakness, we have no interest in purchasing shares of poorly-managed bank at a “cheap” price, only interest is in buying into well-managed banks at fair price.

至於為什麼銀行業會有那麼多的資產比重落在負債（liability) 而非股東權益呢？ 這就需要進一步分析細項。

Bank Of America 2022 Balance sheet

Apple 2022 Balance sheet

ROE & ROA

另外“Equity /Asset” 除了反映在槓桿程度，也會影響兩個投資人關注的盈利指標—ROA(Return on Asset)＆ROE (Return on Equity) 。

以同樣為科技業的 AAPL 和 GOOG兩間公司為例，如果乍看兩者截止2022–12–31的 ROA分別為：GOOG 16.71% (Net Income: 59.97B, Total Assets: 365.26B) ，AAPL 27.46% (Net Income: 95.17B, Total Assets: 346.75B)，即使AAPL領先但相差仍並不是十分巨大。然而如果進一步來看ROE，GOOG 23.54% (Equity: 256.14B) ，而AAPL卻為驚人的163.45%。(Equity: 56.73B)。

信用評等

In the past we have bought a few below-investment-grade bonds with success, though these were all old-fashioned “fallen angels”–bonds that were initially of investment grade but that were downgraded when the issuers fell on bad times” — p131

信用評等是指針對發行債券的可靠性及風險，而給予相對應的信用評級分數。目前市場上主要有三間公司：標準普爾(Standard & Poor’s)、穆迪投資者服務公司(Moody’s Investors Service) 以及 惠譽國際信用評等公司(Fitch Ratings)。

至於評級公司是根據哪些依據來給出分數？我們簡單來看標準普爾的方法論（Methodology）。

更多詳情可參考兩篇文章：

• 信用評等是什麼？債券信用評等表怎麼看？標準普爾S&P/穆迪Moody’s/惠譽國際3大信評公司介紹
• Learn how bonds are rated and what ratings mean for your investment strategy.

垃圾債券的風險

It is interesting to compare Wesco’s approach with an approach promoted for years by Michael Milken to help sell junk bonds. The Milken approach argued that (1) market prices were efficient in a world where investors get paid extra for enduring volatility (2) …… — p134

• Michael Milken 是華爾街的“垃圾債券之王”，使得垃圾債券在80年代的美國風極一時。在這部影片中，主持人David Rubenstein 訪問了Michael Milken關於投入高收益債券的起心動念以及發展故事， 值得一聽！

B. Zero-Coupon Bonds

零收益債券介紹

報酬率計算

In our case, the bonds were issued at 44.314% of maturity value and are due in 15 years. For investor purchasing the bonds, that is the mathematical equivalent of a 5.5% current payment compounded semi-annually. — p135

See “Compounding Period” sections in Simple vs. Compounding Interest: Definitions and Formulas

零收益債券的配息屬性

For tax purposes, Berkshire is entitled to deduct the 5.5% interest accrual each year, even though we make no payments to the bondholders. ….– p135

由於零收益債券的收益被歸類為「配息」，但實際上到期日才會支付，因此在過度期間年度企業無需支付現金流，同時達到稅賦減免效果。

「帳面上」多餘現金流的衍生弊病

上面提到的特點，會使得公司在債券到期日前的年份具有更充足的現金流，當這個特性遭到銀行家濫用就會造成嚴重後果。

Promoters and their investment bankers proclaimed that EBDIT should now be measured against cast interest only, which meant that interest accruing on zero-coupon bonds could be ignored when the financial feasibility of a transaction was being assessed — p138

C. Preferred Stocks

特性＆預期報酬

The point you should keep in mind is that most of the value of our convertible preferreds is derived from their fixed-income characteristics — p147. ….

In summation, Charlie and I feel that our preferred stock investments should produce returns moderately above those achieved by most fixed-income portfolios and that we can play a minor but enjoyable and constructive role in the companies. — p142

特別股 (英文：Preferred stock)，是一種結合股票與債券性質的股票，
它像債券一樣有固定的配息以及固定的買回價格，但對於配息則並非像債券一樣保證配發，而是在公司有獲利的前提下優先配發利息，而交易的方式則是和股票一樣 (by 特別股是什麼？特別股風險？最完整的特別股教學懶人包)。 因此巴菲特對於特別股的預期報酬大概就是『稍微比固定收益債高」。

案例分析 — USAir

In making the USAir purchase, your Chairman displayed exquisite timing: I plunged into the business at almost the exact moment that it ran into severe problems. (No one pushed me; in tennis parlance, I committed an “unforced error.”)

巴菲特在航空業的投資路上曲折多舛，大至上在1985年透過preferred stock形式借款給US Airline，隨即意識到自己對於航空產業成本結構的錯誤判斷並被套牢，直到1997 Stephen Wolf新任CEO後才重振股價，巴菲特的優先股也因此獲得額外約30M的股利補償。

詳細可參考：https://som.yale.edu/sites/default/files/2021-12/Module8-Readng.pdf。

D. Derivatives

(TBD)

E. Foreign Currencies and Equities

(TBD)

F. Unconventional Commitments

(TBD)